Welcome back for week 13 of the NFL Joes vs. Pros breakdown. If you are interested in who the “sharp” money is on, or if games have reverse line movement, this is the place to be. This should not be the end all be all for your wagers, but just another tool to consider while you are putting your card together. Sports Insights is where I get my percentages from.
Before we jump into it, some general betting terms to know:
Joes: Who the general public is overwhelming betting on. Around 60% or higher is a good baseline.
Pros: Sharps, Wiseguys, Syndicates, big bettors, whatever you want to call them. Basically, who the big money is on in the game.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the majority of bets are on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Usually an indicator of “smart” money.
If you tailed the sharps last week, you would’ve gone 2-0 (14-6 YTD) due to the Saints beatdown of the Eagles. Today, one game fits both the Joes vs. Pros discrepancy and reverse line movement:
The public is all over the Seahawks in this game (65%), and understandably so, after their big win on the road last weekend against the Panthers. But, the “Pro” money has come in hard on the Niners (60%), causing the line to move from Hawks -11 to -10 in most books. This indicates reverse line movement on the 49ers.
I also spoke with Jason Simbal, VP of Risk Management at CG Technology, who had the following to say about today’s games:
Their biggest needs today: Rams, Ravens, Jaguars
Biggest Joes vs. Pros discrepancy in their book: Joes on Chiefs and Seahawks, Pros on Raiders and 49ers.